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☆ U.S. payrolls increased by 216,000 in December, much better than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

December's jobs report showed employers added 216,000 positions for the month while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to increase 170,000 and the unemployment rate to nudge higher to 3.8%. That increase in the "real" unemployment rate came as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline in job holders of 683,000 as the ranks of those working multiple jobs increased by 222,000. Major averages meandered through the day as markets reacted to a lower than expected reading from the ISM services gauge. The report showed that inflationary pressures, despite receding elsewhere, are still prevalent in the labor market.

Persons: downwardly, Dow Jones, Andrew Patterson Organizations: Labor Department, meandered, Treasury, Leisure, Federal Reserve, CME, Vanguard Locations: U.S

Inflation, as measured by an index closely followed by the Federal Reserve, dipped slightly in line with estimates in September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. The personal consumption price expenditures index rose 0.4% for the month, unchanged from August, while rising 3.4% on an annual basis, down from 3.5% a month earlier. The narrower core index, excluding food and energy costs, rose 0.3% for the month, in line with expectations but up from the 0.1% increase in August. For the year, the core index is running at 3.7%, an improvement from the 3.9% registered a month ago. The report showed that spending also increased, by 0.7%, while incomes rose by 0.3%,“Core Inflation: the three month annualized pace of core PCE slowed to 2.4% y/y.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Mark Vitner, Joe Davis, Andrew Patterson, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, PCE, RSM, Fed, Crescent Capital, Vanguard, Global, “ Locations: Europe

☆ Stock futures inch higher as Wall Street awaits key inflation data: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on January 04, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures ticked up Wednesday night as investors looked toward new consumer inflation data for greater insight on the economy. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 38 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures inched up about 0.2% each. "[August's] CPI print was a bit stronger than we anticipated, though the downward trend in core inflation persisted.

Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Patterson, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Investors, Federal Reserve, Vanguard, Traders, Atlanta Fed, Boston Fed, Delta Air Lines, Walgreens Boots Alliance Locations: New York City . U.S, Israel

☆ US economy added 336,000 jobs last month, almost twice what was expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The US economy added an estimated 336,000 jobs last month, blowing expectations out of the water, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. In September, leisure and hospitality helped drive job growth higher, with 96,000 jobs added. Today’s headline jobs number — that surprising 336,000 net job gain — is an initial estimate that will be revised twice more. The surprising September jobs report, however, didn’t continue that streak. August’s second look has job growth now at 227,000 for the month, an increase of 40,000.

Persons: ”, Sung, Soh, Joe Biden, “, it’s, ” Biden, Andrew Patterson, ” Patterson, they’ve, Jim McCoy, we’re, ” Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor’s, ” Julia Pollak, didn’t, ” Diane Swonk, — CNN’s Tami Luhby Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, BLS, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Vanguard, Fed, Administration, Children, Families, Nationwide, Century, CNN Locations: Minneapolis, United States

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4% in August, slightly below estimates, while the yearly rise was 3.5%. But it was the core index that strips out food and energy prices coming in at 3.9%, its lowest reading since September of 2021, that is likely of most interest to the Fed. While goods prices have slowed considerably, costs in the services sector have proven harder to bring down, driven largely by housing prices. Looked at just over the past three months, the rate of core inflation has slowed markedly and is not far from the Fed’s 2% annual target. “PCE and core pce figures indicate continued inflation easing,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, commented on X.

Persons: “, ”, Carol Schleif, ” Kathy Jones, Andrew Patterson, Downside, ” Patterson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, PCE, BMO Family Office, Schwab Center, Financial Research

☆ PCE: Gas prices heated up inflation last month, but there's also welcome progress for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —Higher gas prices heated up overall inflation last month, but the Federal Reserve got some welcome news: Its preferred inflation gauge cooled to its lowest level in two years. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a closely watched inflation measure that excludes gas and food prices, rose 3.9% for the 12 months ended in August. However, it also was largely expected: Gas prices heated up last month as well. The Commerce Department’s monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports are typically closely watched as they provide a comprehensive account of pricing, income and spending data. Other federal data at risk for delays could include key housing and auto sales data, Census Bureau data, PCE and GDP reports, among others.

Persons: ” Andrew Patterson, ” Patterson, ” Dana Peterson, “ That’s, ”, that’s, Price, Security Administration’s, “ We’ve, ” Vanguard’s Patterson, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Vanguard, CNN, Energy, “ Energy, Consumers, Commerce, Conference Board, Labor, Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Price, Security, Adjustment, Labor Department Locations: Minneapolis, Saudi Arabia, Russia

The Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while raising forecasts for economic growth and lowering them for unemployment next year. “Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.”The central bank updated its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment and inflation. The GDPNow estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now pegging economic growth in the third quarter at 4.9%. But it would likely curb economic growth at a time when the Fed’s policies have restricted credit and other government stimulus is waning.

Persons: “, ” Powell, ”, Powell, Andrew Patterson, Ruslan Lienkha, Victor Li, Jeff MacDonald, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ”, Villanova University, Federal Reserve Bank of, GOP Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Inflation increased 0.6% in August, as gasoline prices rose, pushing the annual pace to 3.7%, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday. “While goods inflation is expected to deflate, though at a slower pace compared to the last few months, we expect services inflation to remain firm,” said Andrew Patterson, senior economist at Vanguard. Inflation has receded the most in the goods sector of the economy but has proved stickier in services. Housing, in particular, has seen prices remain high while energy costs have been volatile. And wages are still growing at around a 4% annual clip, above the level the Fed would like to see to keep inflation at bay.

Persons: “, ”, Andrew Patterson Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Vanguard, Housing Locations: Russia

☆ 6 things to know about the job market right now: It's 'near-perfect,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Job growth is slowingThe U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Job growth is clearly losing momentum: The three-month average in August was 150,000 jobs added, versus 201,000 in June, for example, Bunker said. Further, monthly job growth still exceeds U.S. population growth, economists said. Unemployment is up — but not for bad reasonsThe unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% in August from 3.5% in July, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. There were about 8.8 million openings in July, the fewest since March 2021, according to Labor Department data.

Persons: Mario Tama, Bunker, Julia Pollak, Lat, Aaron Terrazas, Andrew Hunter, Pollak, —, Zandi, Andrew Patterson, Hunter Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Yellow Corp, U.S . Labor Department, Capital Economics, Workers, Vanguard, White House Council, Economic, CEA Locations: U.S, Hollywood

☆ Here's where the jobs are for August 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Labor Department said Friday that the economy added 187,000 jobs in August even as the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8%. The August jobs report was another sign that the U.S. labor market is cooling off, though some of the sectors that have fueled the post-pandemic rebound remain strong. "Leisure and hospitality still remains well below pre-pandemic levels of employment, and well below pre-pandemic trends in employment. That was driven by a drop of nearly 37,000 positions in trucking, which the Labor Department attributed to a business closure. The sub-category for motion picture and sound recording dropped close to 17,000 jobs, the Labor Department said.

Persons: we're, Andrew Patterson, Patterson, CNBC's Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Labor Department, Vanguard, Hollywood Locations: United States

"The economy is still adding more jobs than new entrants to the labor market," wrote Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joseph Davis and Senior International Economist Andrew Patterson. Wage growth "remains well above levels the Fed would be comfortable with" in the fight to return inflation to the 2% target. With job growth in prior months revised down by more than 100,000 jobs, the June jobs report is "a fairly soft print" with three-month average job gains now at 244,000 compared to more than 400,000 a year ago, said Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights. But progress towards a more balanced labor market is coming "slowly, slowly...These are still healthy figures" even as the pace softens. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns, Nick Zieminski, Andrea Ricci and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Joseph Davis, Andrew Patterson, Omair Sharif, Austan Goolsbee, Let's, Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Nick Zieminski, Andrea Ricci, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Vanguard Global, Senior, Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: U.S

The Fed looks poised to pauseS&P 500 futures are up on Wednesday as investors bet that the Fed will not change its prime lending rate, thanks to an array of unexpectedly positive economic data. If the central bank moves as expected, it would break a streak of 10 consecutive rate increases, back to March of 2022 — the Fed’s most aggressive pace since the 1980s. That said, many expect the decision on Wednesday to represent a pause, not a reversal, of a hawkish anti-inflation policy. The central bank’s chair, Jay Powell, is expected to suggest at his post-meeting news conference on Wednesday that he isn’t done raising rates. Mr. Patterson believes that the Fed is planning at least one more rate increase this year.

Persons: Jay Powell, Powell, ” Andrew Patterson, DealBook, Patterson Organizations: Vanguard

☆ CPI report: Inflation fell for eighth-straight month in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN —Inflation remains elevated but the temperature is coming down, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. It’s the eighth consecutive month that the annual rate has declined, and marks the lowest level since September 2021. On a monthly basis, prices were up 0.4%, representing a cooldown from the January monthly growth rate of 0.5%. Despite some broader declines, Tuesday’s CPI report shows that it may take longer for the inflation rate to reach the Fed’s desired 2% target, wrote Sinem Buber, lead economist at ZipRecruiter. On the one hand, it wants to maintain credibility on inflation and avoid core inflation accelerating further.

☆ How the market has changed in the 20+ years I’ve covered it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Eastman Kodak (KODK) was a Dow stock. I’ve written about B2B (aka business-to-business) software companies, cloud computing firms, IPOs and SPACs, and cannabis/pot stocks. There have been more flavors of the month in the stock market during my CNN career than at your local Baskin-Robbins. It’s fine to have a lot of your money in S&P 500 ETFs and other funds that will track the broader market. “We still continue to believe that over long periods of time, stocks provide a reasonable hedge against inflation,” Patterson said.

☆ December consumer prices didn’t actually fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —December consumer prices rose from the month before and did not fall as previously thought, according to revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday. The newly calibrated Consumer Price Index shows that prices rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December from November versus a previously estimated decline of 0.1%. The latest annual adjustments show slight shifts in the month-on-month inflation trend for 2022 — with November and October revised up by 0.1 percentage points. “This means that this 2023 CPI report will be based on consumer spending patterns that took place in 2021, as opposed to 2022’s CPI data, which was based on spending data over 2019-2020,” William Blair analyst Richard de Chazal wrote in a note Friday. Here’s how the adjusted data looks for 2022:Month: Original data vs. RevisedJanuary: 0.6% vs. 0.6%February: 0.8% vs. 0.7%March: 1.2% vs. 1%April: 0.3% vs. 0.4%May: 1% vs. 0.9%June: 1.3% vs. 1.2%July: 0.1% vs. 0%August: 0.1% vs. 0.2%September: 0.4% vs. 0.4%October: 0.4% vs. 0.5%November: 0.1% vs. 0.2%December: -0.1% vs. 0.1%

With a majority of S & P 500 companies having posted their quarterly results, investors' focus will turn toward inflation and the consumer price index reading in the upcoming week. The three major indexes are on pace to end the week down, with the S & P 500 poised to post its worst performance since December. Sharp declines for Alphabet , which is off by more than 9% this week, dragged the tech-heavy index. January's consumer price index With the latest Powell speech in the books, investors are now looking ahead to the consumer price index for insight into the pace of inflation. "Retail sales and CPI is really driven by the consumer, and a lot of eyes are on how the consumer doing," Bruno said.

☆ Premarket stocks: Don't be fooled by a strong GDP report
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

That’s why it’s so surprising that the US economy is expected to show robust growth in Thursday’s third-quarter GDP report. Economists warn that the report could be a one-hit-wonder that overstates momentum in an economy that is actually slowing. “There is more braking power being inflicted on the US economy than will be at all apparent in the third-quarter GDP report,” wrote Kelly. Central bank officials are going to be looking at underlying metrics in the report, and will likely ignore headline numbers, said Patterson. The bottom line: The rejiggering of trade balances often falsely inflates economic growth calculations ahead of a recession.

☆ Jobs report: The US job market remains robust, but is showing signs of cooling
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —The fever hasn’t broken yet for America’s employment market, but the temperature is coming down. That, coupled with job openings showing some sharp declines, points to a labor market slowdown — an outcome the Federal Reserve is seeking as it battles decades-high inflation. “The job market is slowing gracefully, moderating jobs and wage growth smoothly as the Federal Reserve searches for signs of cooling inflation,” Daniel Zhao, senior economist for Glassdoor, said in a statement. What could, however, move the needle will be the findings from the inflation data due next week, he said. Job openings outpace job seekers on a 1.7 to 1 ratio, the BLS’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August showed.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoSept 19 (Reuters) - Just months ago, investors worried the Federal Reserve was not fighting inflation aggressively enough. Several jumbo rate hikes later, some now fear the Fed will plunge the economy into recession by tightening monetary policy too quickly. Investors are also pricing in meatier rate hikes down the road, with the terminal rate for U.S. fed funds now at 4.4%. read moreDoubleLine’s Chief Executive Jeffrey Gundlach, who had in June criticized the Fed for moving too slowly, told CNBC last week he was worried the Fed might hike rates too far. Some investors think the economy may be resilient enough to withstand a more aggressive Fed.

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